Our independent economic expert team estimates fair values of China exports and imports for each month in 2011. By adding all values in the whole year, the net China global trade balance will be USD$192.1 billion in 2011.
This calculated target is based on the assumptions that:
(1) China will continue to have a positive yearly global trade balance (trade surplus), i.e.: exporting more than importing.
(2) China trade surplus will narrow as the rate of growth of China imports outpaces exports.
(3) it is our prediction that the global economy will slow down in 2011.
At this moment, we admit that our estimation trends to be a bit conservative. While the US House of Representatives passed legislation in September 2010 that empowered the US trading department to levy tariffs on Chinese goods based on exchange-rate concerns, a trade war was about to begin. This trade war adds uncertainty to China exports and certainly makes our estimation of China global trade balance, especially the US-China trade, highly unpredictable.
On the Europe side, fears over the debt crisis remain and reignite market worries about the fragile economic recovery. As the debt crisis continues to spread from Greece, Ireland and Portugal to the rest of Europe including Spain and Italy, there are still full of uncertainties in how the European debt crisis will be resolved and what degree will the crisis impair the global economy.
For other emerging markets, their economies are facing problems in continual growth and their rates of growth are also slowing down. Although their economic growth should still be stronger than that of the developed economies, they are not able to grow purely in a self-supported fashion and their growth rates are still greatly affected by the developed world. As a result, it is fair to say that the economic growth of emerging markets can hardly to offset the loss of the developed markets to a great extent. In any case, the economic slow-down of all the above major China trading partners will add uncertainties to China exports as well.
The USD$192.1 billion is of course our initial release value of China global trade balance target in 2011, it may be upgraded/downgraded later if the related China trading conditions may change.
UPDATE - Next article: 2012 Trade Balance Target
2011 CPI target
2011 GDP target
Setting our own targets
2011 HSI target
2011 SSE target