Monday, March 11, 2013

2013 GDP Target

We, Mr China, today announce our own annual China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target as +7.6% YoY in 2013.

Tracking previous People's Republic of China (PRC) Gross Domestic Product data is very easy. Every year we publish GDP chart in this website for your review. Here you can easily check out the most current PRC GDP growth rate chart:

China GDP economic annual growth rate graph

Current China GDP Annual Economic Growth Rate Chart

In 2012, China GDP (Gross Domestic Product) annual growth rate finally settled at +7.8% YoY, just a bit slower than our published target of +8% YoY. Source: 2012 China Economic Annual Growth Rate and GDP Target. After 7 quarters of consecutive GDP slowdowns, it appears that PRC economic growth has started to be stable. According to the latest trend, its Gross Domestic Product growth rate rebounded to +7.9% YoY in 2012 Q4 from +7.4% in Q3 of the year.

The same as past years, our independent group of economic expert team already estimated the fair values of 2013 final goods and services shall produce inside PRC (Note: imports of goods and services are not included) and then put these fair values into the GDP growth formula. As per our calculations, People's Republic of China (PRC) Gross Domestic Product will theoretically grow by +7.6% YoY in 2013.

This calculated 2013 annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) target also suggests that we anticipate a relatively slower pace of annual economic growth in 2013 than that in 2012, although it will be only 0.2% slower. However, we would say that overall downtrend is quite obvious now. Critical economic growth assumptions (2013) are:

(i) Developed economies in America continent (USA and Canada) will experience a slight economic recovery, while economies in Europe zone (France, Germany, U.K., Italy, etc) will still likely be weak for 2013.

(ii) We continue to expect that China 2013 domestic economy will have a slight slowdown. The same slower-growth target should also be applicable to the rest emerging economies in BRICS (i.e.: Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa). For other Asian (Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea etc) regions, their 2013 economies should be relatively stronger.

(iii) People's Republic of China (PRC) government and its State Council already announced on 5 March to keep the official 2013 GDP growth rate forecast at around +7.5% YoY. This also reflects, however, that our own +7.6% estimation is a bit more optimistic than that of central government. Practically, we expect that PRC central government will take necessary measures to promote economic growth if GDP will trend to drop lower than +7.5%. Of course, if GDP stays well above +7.5% for whole year, we believe it will be unlikely that central government will take any favorable actions to stimulate the domestic economy, because there are still concerns of excessive hot money inflow and excessive productivity across the country. And any over-stimulus will induce unnecessary inflationary expectations that may cause uncontrolled economic meltdown.

The +7.6% should just be our first release of 2013 China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual target value, we may upgrade/downgrade this 2013 economic growth rate target shall the concerned Chinese domestic or global economic environment might later suffer changes suddenly. So just stay tuned on our site!

Additional Chinese Annual Economic Target(s):
Full Summary Table For All Our China-related Annual Economic Targets


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